China National Offshore Oil Services (601808): The beginning of the turning point in performance

China National Offshore Oil Services (601808): The beginning of the turning point in performance

The largest offshore oil service company in China, the performance of the turning point continues to be verified: the company is the largest offshore oil service supplier in the country, currently engaged in four major business sectors: drilling, lifting machinery technology, ship services, geophysical prospecting.

In 2019H1, the company continued the trend of performance rebound and achieved revenue of 135.

6 trillion, +66 a year.

6%; net profit attributable to mother 9.

70,000 yuan (the same period last year -3.

800 million).

In terms of different sectors, the strong performance of the drilling and technology sectors of the company in H1 2019 will lead to the recovery of the company’s performance, of which the revenue of the drilling sector was 44.

9 trillion, +49 a year.

4%.

Mainly due to the market recovery driving the company’s drilling platform utilization and daily fee synchronization; technical sector revenue 66.

3 ‰, +94 a year.

8%.

The business volume of the main business lines increased.

Ship / Geophysical Revenue 14.

4/10.

0 ‰, each year +15.

9% / + 105.

3%.

The inflection point of the company’s overall performance has gradually reached clarity. While the prosperity of the domestic oil service industry continues to increase and overlap, under the resonance effect of cost reduction and efficiency brought by its refined management, the performance elasticity promotes full release.

National policy promotes independent and controllable energy resources, and the company benefits from the certainty of three barrels of oil capital expansion expansion: On October 11, 2019, the National Energy Commission meeting once again emphasized the expansion of domestic oil and gas exploration and development efforts to promote increased reserves and production.

Three barrels of oil responded positively to the national call. Taking CNOOC as an example, its “Seven-year Plan” announced in January 2019 clearly speeds up oil and gas exploration and development, and plans to double its exploration 成都桑拿网 workload and proven reserves by 2025. In May 2019, CNOOCAnnouncing the target of 20 million meters in the western coastal area of the South China Sea and 2000 inches in the eastern coastal area of the South China Sea by 2025, that is, the oil and gas production in the western South China Sea will nearly double within 7 years, and the eastern part of the South China Sea will increase by nearly one-third;It has exceeded the long-term level in 2017 and previous years, with exploration investment reaching US $ 8.6 billion and a substantial increase of 109.

8%. According to the latest announcement of CNOOC on October 24, Q3’s single-quarter exploration investment reached 55.

0 ppm, +106 for ten years.

0%, the high growth trend is verified again.

At present, the company’s domestic revenue mainly comes from CNOOC’s three 深圳桑拿网 barrels of oil. The deterministic acceleration of the capital expenditure of the three barrels of oil will lock the company’s future high growth.

The technology sector has entered the harvest period, and the volume and price of drilling services have risen to start repairs: The company’s technology sector benefited from the business line operation volume has increased significantly, and its 2019 H1 revenue reached 66.

300 million, a sharp increase of 94 over the same period.

8%, the revenue share of the sector increased to 48.

9%.

In addition, the beneficiary company’s R & D achievements in recent years have continued to make breakthroughs and refined management to control costs. The gross profit margin of the sector has bottomed -3 since 2016.

After 6%, it rebounded rapidly, and the gross profit margin of the sector in 2018 was 25.

4%.

Absolutely, under the condition that the current oil price is in the middle range, the company’s technology sector gross margin has exceeded the previous round of business cycle changes (the gross margin in 2010 was 23).

5%), reflecting the significant improvement of the company’s technical strength.

The drilling sector benefited from the improvement of the domestic oil service industry’s prosperity. The calendar day utilization rate of the company’s platform in 2019H1 is +12 per year.

5 points to 76.

6%, the daily fee of the platform also increased.

Driven by rising volume and price, the profitability of the sector started to repair.The company’s drilling segment is still expanding in 2018 (gross profit margin is -4.

5%); 2019H1 operating margins rebounded to 5.

6% (Hong Kong stock announcement), +27 per year.

8pct, realizing a turnaround.

Historically, the gross profit margin of the drilling plate remained near 40% in 2008-2014, with a starting point of 44.

8% (2009), the profitability of the sector has ample room for repair.

Profit forecast and investment rating: As a domestic offshore oil service leader, the company is expected to directly benefit from the capital expenditure of domestic oil companies in the context of promoting oil and gas production in the existing national policy level.

At present, the inflection point of the company’s performance is gradually clear, and it is expected to release full flexibility in the future.

The company’s revenue is expected to be 277 in 2019-2021.

6/323.

2/367.

100 million, net profit attributable to mother 24.

3/32.

4/42.

1 ‰, corresponding to PE 28/21/16 times.

Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: domestic oil and gas production rate is lower than expected, domestic oil companies ‘capital expenditure is lower than expected