China Construction (601668) Company Research: Housing Construction Forces Forced Infrastructure Recovery to Drive Orders to Accelerate Sales of China Overseas Real Estate
Housing construction force, infrastructure recovery, driving December orders accelerated.
The company’s newly signed contract value from January to December 2019 was 24,823 trillion, an increase of 6.
6%, an increase of 3 from last month.
2 pct, 2 pct faster than the growth rate in 2018.
There were 3,332 trillion new signings in a single month in December, an increase of 35.
From the perspective of business segments, the value of newly signed housing construction contracts increased by 16 from January to December.
10%, up 2 from last month.
4 pct, of which the new signing of a single month in December increased by 40.
75%. The performance of housing construction orders since 19 years has continued to be dazzling. It is the main driving force for the company’s order growth, creating the highest annual growth rate since 2014 and a solid foundation for housing construction income by 2020. New contracts for infrastructure construction from January to DecemberThe amount is down by 18.
4%, a decrease from the previous month of 8%.
1 pct, the improvement is obvious, of which the new signing in December alone 南宁桑拿 increased by 28.
Since 18 years, the company has actively controlled the acceptance of infrastructure orders based on changes in the external environment, which has led to shifts in orders. However, the current infrastructure orders in hand are very abundant, and future revenue is still expected to maintain steady growth.
In terms of subregions, the territorial / foreign new year bills increased by 6 from January to December.
1% / 13%, 2 faster than last month.
In 19 years, real estate sales continued to be strong, and CNOOC exceeded its target in excess.
On January 12, 2019, the company’s real estate business contract subsidy was 3818 trillion, an increase of 27.
9%, an increase of 1 from the previous month.
2 pcts, of which the December single-month contract supplemented 42 billion U.S. 深圳桑拿网 dollars and increased by 27 in the future.
27%; The contracted sales area from January to December was 21.68 million square meters, an increase of 5.
7%, of which the monthly contracted sales area in December was 2.6 million square meters, which was basically flat for one year.
The contracted sales of the company’s subsidiary China Shipping Real Estate in 2019 was 3771.
$ 6.8 billion, an increase of 25 per year.
The growth rate is 21%, which is at the forefront of the leader, and 108% of the planned target has been achieved. The target has been exceeded for two consecutive years, showing a strong momentum.
In the first three quarters of 19, the company’s real estate business realized operating income of USD 145 billion, an increase of 22 per year.
8%, 5 faster than the first half.
6 pct, the settlement speed is significantly accelerated.
ROE is expected to continue to improve, and current estimates are still low.
The company’s ROE has remained above 16% in 2011-2018, reaching 18 since 2013.
It started to fall after a high of 55%, and the lowest dropped to 16 in 2017.
26%, mainly due to the extension of the increase in asset turnover.
Looking ahead, the company’s real estate sales and settlement are accelerating, PPP replenishment is reduced, and the receivables turnover rate is increasing, which promotes the asset turnover rate; the progress of deleveraging and the equity multiplier are stable; meanwhile, the business structure improvement with improved profitability continues to rise.
In 2018, the company’s ROE has stabilized and rebounded to 16.
67%, there is a tendency to continue to increase in the future.
The current PE (ttm) / PB (LF) are 6 respectively.1/1.
02 times, which is still lower than the historical 1/4 quantile, and the ratios to CSI 300PE / PB are 0.
66, near the bottom of history.
Considering the company’s higher ROE and upward trend, and solid performance growth, the current estimate is still low.
Investment suggestion: We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021 will be 421/464/50 billion U.S. dollars, with a long-term growth of 10% / 10% / 9%, and the corresponding EPS will be 1.
20 yuan (2018-2021 CAGR9.
6%), the current sustainable corresponding PE is 6, respectively.
0x, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: the improvement of the financing environment does not meet the expected risks, real estate risks, the effects of infrastructure policies do not meet the expected risks, the profitability risk of real estate business, the impact of shareholder reductions, etc.