Guizhou Moutai (600519) Semi-annual Report for 2019: Performance Exceeds Expectations; Third Quarter Heavy Volume Is a High Probability Event

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Semi-annual Report for 2019: Performance Exceeds Expectations; Third Quarter Heavy Volume Is a High Probability Event
I. Event Overview Guizhou Moutai announced its semi-annual report. In the first half of 2019, the company achieved total operating income of 411.73 trillion, ten years +16.80%; operating income of 394.880,000 yuan, ten years +18.24%; net profit attributable to listed companies was 199.5.1 billion yuan, +26 per year.56%.In Q2 2019, the company achieved operating income of 178.44 trillion, ten years +12.01%; realized net profit attributable to listed companies 87.30 trillion, +20 for ten years.29%.  Second, the analysis and judgment of 19Q2 single quarter revenue growth rate was slightly lower than market expectations, the direct release rhythm has not seen the relaxation of 19H1 Moutai to achieve revenue of 347.950,000 yuan, ten years +18.41%.In the single quarter of 19Q2, Moutai achieved revenue of 152.97 ‰, a decrease of 42 ‰ from 19Q1, an increase of 12 per year.33%.According to the report caliber, it is estimated that the company’s statement in 19H1 confirmed that Moutai was about 1.Around 55, about 0 more than the actual shipment.1 ounce.  The 19H1 series of wines achieved income 46.55 ppm, +16 for ten years.57%.Due to the reduction in the company’s investment invitation for this year’s series of wines and the increase in the number of overlapping bases, the growth rate of the series of wines has slightly tilted.The upward trend is more obvious.  In terms of channels, 19H1 direct sales only achieved 16.02% is 10%, a year-on-year decrease of 38%, and the rate of decline in 19Q1 is still enlarged, which indicates that the pace of direct sales of 北京桑拿洗浴保健 direct sales in 19Q2 has continued to tighten.  The increase in ton price promoted the increase in gross profit margin, and the gross sales margin improved significantly. The overall gross profit margin in 19H1 was 91.87%, ten years +0.93ppt, the increase in the price of tons of wine is the main reason for the increase in gross profit margin.  In 19H1, the proportion of Moutai non-standard products (vintage wine, zodiac wine, boutique wine) increased significantly, and the proportion of second- and high-end products in the series of wine also increased, which can jointly promote the improvement of the company’s overall gross profit margin.  The period expense rate is 12.04%, year -1.90ppt, decline in sales expense ratio (-1.41ppt) is the core contribution, and it is expected that the launch of a series of alcoholic beverages this 南京夜生活网 year will be a major cause.In addition, management costs also fell slightly.26ppt.Net interest rate is 53.68%, ten years +3.At 01ppt, the significant improvement in gross sales difference is the leader in 19H1 performance growth over revenue growth.  Accounts received in advance at the end of the reporting period 122.5.7 billion, +8 per month / month.73 / + 23.17 ppm, it is expected that there is no recognition of revenue from advance receipts in 19Q2, so the increase in advance receipts at the end of the reporting period was mainly due to dealers making advance payments.Cash received from sales of goods, provision of services and net cash flows from operating activities were 433.29 ppm / 240.87 trillion, each year +25.19% / + 35.82%.  The adjustment of the dealer system is estimated to be nearing completion. In the third quarter, the company added 21 series of wine dealers in 19Q2, but the number of Moutai liquor dealers still decreased by nearly 80, indicating that the dealer system is still fine-tuning. We judge that the adjustment is nearing completion.After May, Feitian Maotai’s approval price started to rise rapidly and has now reached a high of 2150 yuan.Based on the judgment that the adjustment of the distribution system is nearing its end and the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, we believe that the volume of Moutai in the third quarter will be a high probability event, and the price of Moutai in the third quarter is expected to fall and peak.However, considering that the increment of Moutai in the second half of the year is still limited, the overall decline is not expected to be too great.  Three profit forecasting and investment recommendations We slightly increase the profitability profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will achieve operating income of 896/1057/1247 billion US dollars in 19-21, + 16% / + 18% / + 18% per year; net profit attributable to mother 430/ 512/609 billion, more than +22% / + 19% / + 19%, corresponding to an EPS of 34.23/40.75/48.48 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 28/24/20 times.At present, the company estimates that it is 30 times lower than the overall evaluation of the liquor sector. Taking into account future growth, it maintains a “recommended” level.  4. Risk warnings: economic growth drags down demand, slower-than-expected release of performance, food safety issues, etc.