Global stocks and the disintegration of the real estate market opportunities depends on the European Central Bank

The Committee considers that the development of the Federal Reserve, and the stock market ahead of the economy。  US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) led by the Federal Reserve Chairman Xi Yelun are in the midst hike mode, but now, it is going to reduce the Fed's balance sheet。This is another way FOMC to tighten monetary policy。  The Fed seems intent on gradually reducing reinvestment, rather than abruptly stop。The Fed also seems inclined to stop reinvesting matured claims holdings of bonds, without any direct selling bonds。In this process, the liquidity from the financial system to be removed。When the fall of the wishes of liquidity, undertake financial market risks will decline。  And compared to the Fed, the ECB is an entirely different model, which is actively involved in monetary stimulus。We can say that the European Central Bank to put liquidity worldwide stock and financial markets, coupled with the expectation of fiscal policy to offset the austerity policy of the Federal Open Market Committee have been implemented。But those days are numbered。The ECB will also end its stimulus plan at some point。When that time, the global economy will start to feel more immediate FOMC monetary policy tightening by the arrival of the pain。  What's more, there's more trouble ahead。  Through the new investment demand macro analysis to measure the investment rate of change of the rate of naturally found in the long time, this natural rate of change is a sharp decline。Decline began in December 2007, without sustained stimulus money injected into the global economic system, we are seeing today is a different story。  Specifically, the object needs stocks, bonds and other assets will be significantly reduced, existing foam will also cease to exist, we will face the risk of recession or depression。This is because, historically, when fewer new dollars can be invested into the economy when to go, recessions and depressions would be unexpected。  So, this leads to an important question: When the final loose end stimulation, the European Central Bank ending economic stimulus, affect the FOMC monetary policy tightening began to be aware of when the world, the so-called investment will quickly be reversed standardized level of demand。As the FOMC monetary policy contraction, risk appetite will be significantly reduced, while natural investment demand simply can not support the needs of today's existing assets, the economy may be off target。  From every point of view, the stock and real estate market will collapse。The timing depends on the European Central Bank。  You might like (original title: Global stock and real estate market depends on the timing of the collapse of the European Central Bank) (Editor: DF318)