Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) Dynamic Comment: Performance in line with expectations

Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) Dynamic Comment: Performance in line with expectations
[Event]Yesterday, Kelun Pharmaceutical released the 2018 performance report, and the company achieved revenue of 163 in 2018.520,000 yuan (+43.00%), net profit attributable to mother 12.1.3 billion (+62 y / y.04%). [Comment]The performance is in line with expectations, and the volume of specialty preparations is in good momentum.The performance growth mainly comes from the following aspects: 1) The optimization of the structure of large infusion products continued to advance.With the increase in the proportion of high-margin soft plastic products, the company’s infusion product structure has continued to be optimized, and the sales terminal has been strengthened to promote lower prices of low-margin varieties. There has been a certain recovery. Increase in gross profit contribution from structural optimization and price increases, and increase infusionProfitability of the segment; 2) Yili Chuanning’s production capacity is released.The production and marketing of the four major antibiotic intermediates of thioerythromycin, 7-ACA, 6-APA, and industrial salts of penicillin are basically stable, and it is expected to contribute 6-6.500 million net profit can provide stable cash flow for the company; 3) The volume of specialty preparations has a good momentum.With the development of new varieties such as escitalopram oxalate tablets, parecoxib sodium for injection, dexmedetomidine hydrochloride injection, zoledronic acid injection, and ambroxol hydrochloride injection, the development of specialty preparationsWorth looking forward to. The combination of imitating innovation and synchronous advancement to enrich the R & D pipeline confirms the company’s strong R & D strength.The company is expected to invest USD 9 billion to USD 1 billion in R & D for generic drug R & D, consistency evaluation and innovative drug R & D.The research and development of generic drugs are involved 无锡桑拿网 in the fields of parenteral nutrition, cell infections and other major diseases. In 2018, nearly 20 generic drugs are approved each year. Among them, the products have been evaluated through consistency evaluation.Linomycin capsules, amoxicillin capsules, metronidazole tablets (first), tinidazole tablets (first) 5 are expected to have 14 varieties approved this year, including dapoxetine, moxifloxacin, amino acidsPeritoneal dialysis fluid.At the same time, the consistency evaluation of injections is also being initiated and promoted rapidly.There are 8 varieties of innovative drugs that have entered the clinic. Cetuximab is in clinical phase III, PD-L1 clinical phase II, 6 clinical phase I including 1 VEGFR and 1 ADC.Four varieties will enter clinical stage I. Due to the company’s higher volume of specialty preparations, the operating income is raised, and the operating income is expected to be 163 in 2018/2019/2020.52/195.90/224.2.3 billion (previous forecast was 154.62/180.49/200.US $ 6.3 billion, but due to the increase in costs caused by the new sales channel of preparations, the sales expenses were slightly increased, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 12.13/16.29/20.6.5 billion yuan (previous forecast was 12.38/15.85/19.7.9 billion, with a budget benefit of zero.84/1.13/1.43 yuan, corresponding to price-earnings ratio of 27.79/20.69/16.32 times, maintain “Buy” rating, target price of 28.52 yuan. [Risk Tips]Competitive risks in the large infusion industry; product volume is less than expected; environmental protection risks.